Longitudinal clinical data improve survival prediction after hematopoietic cell transplantation using machine learning.

ABSTRACT: Serial prognostic evaluation after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) might help identify patients at high risk of lethal organ dysfunction. Current prediction algorithms based on models that do not incorporate changes to patients' clinical condition after allo-HCT have limited predictive ability. We developed and validated a robust risk-prediction algorithm to predict short- and long-term survival after allo-HCT in pediatric patients that includes baseline biological variables and changes in the patients' clinical status after allo-HCT. The model was developed using clinical data from children and young adults treated at a single academic quaternary-care referral center. The model was created using a randomly split training data set (70% of the cohort), internally validated (remaining 30% of the cohort) and then externally validated on patient data from another tertiary-care referral center. Repeated clinical measurements performed from 30 days before allo-HCT to 30 days afterwards were extracted from the electronic medical record and incorporated into the model to predict survival at 100 days, 1 year, and 2 years after allo-HCT. Naïve-Bayes machine learning models incorporating longitudinal data were significantly better than models constructed from baseline variables alone at predicting whether patients would be alive or deceased at the given time points. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates that unlike traditional prognostic tools that use fixed variables for risk assessment, incorporating dynamic variability using clinical and laboratory data improves the prediction of mortality in patients undergoing allo-HCT.

Outcomes following treatment for ADA-deficient severe combined immunodeficiency: a report from the PIDTC.

Adenosine deaminase (ADA) deficiency causes ∼13% of cases of severe combined immune deficiency (SCID). Treatments include enzyme replacement therapy (ERT), hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT), and gene therapy (GT). We evaluated 131 patients with ADA-SCID diagnosed between 1982 and 2017 who were enrolled in the Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium SCID studies. Baseline clinical, immunologic, genetic characteristics, and treatment outcomes were analyzed. First definitive cellular therapy (FDCT) included 56 receiving HCT without preceding ERT (HCT); 31 HCT preceded by ERT (ERT-HCT); and 33 GT preceded by ERT (ERT-GT). Five-year event-free survival (EFS, alive, no need for further ERT or cellular therapy) was 49.5% (HCT), 73% (ERT-HCT), and 75.3% (ERT-GT; P < .01). Overall survival (OS) at 5 years after FDCT was 72.5% (HCT), 79.6% (ERT-HCT), and 100% (ERT-GT; P = .01). Five-year OS was superior for patients undergoing HCT at <3.5 months of age (91.6% vs 68% if ≥3.5 months, P = .02). Active infection at the time of HCT (regardless of ERT) decreased 5-year EFS (33.1% vs 68.2%, P < .01) and OS (64.7% vs 82.3%, P = .02). Five-year EFS (90.5%) and OS (100%) were best for matched sibling and matched family donors (MSD/MFD). For patients treated after the year 2000 and without active infection at the time of FDCT, no difference in 5-year EFS or OS was found between HCT using a variety of transplant approaches and ERT-GT. This suggests alternative donor HCT may be considered when MSD/MFD HCT and GT are not available, particularly when newborn screening identifies patients with ADA-SCID soon after birth and before the onset of infections. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01186913 and #NCT01346150.

Excellent outcomes following hematopoietic cell transplantation for Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome: a PIDTC report.

Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome (WAS) is an X-linked disease caused by mutations in the WAS gene, leading to thrombocytopenia, eczema, recurrent infections, autoimmune disease, and malignancy. Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is the primary curative approach, with the goal of correcting the underlying immunodeficiency and thrombocytopenia. HCT outcomes have improved over time, particularly for patients with HLA-matched sibling and unrelated donors. We report the outcomes of 129 patients with WAS who underwent HCT at 29 Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium centers from 2005 through 2015. Median age at HCT was 1.2 years. Most patients (65%) received myeloablative busulfan-based conditioning. With a median follow-up of 4.5 years, the 5-year overall survival (OS) was 91%. Superior 5-year OS was observed in patients <5 vs ≥5 years of age at the time of HCT (94% vs 66%; overall P = .0008). OS was excellent regardless of donor type, even in cord blood recipients (90%). Conditioning intensity did not affect OS, but was associated with donor T-cell and myeloid engraftment after HCT. Specifically, patients who received fludarabine/melphalan-based reduced-intensity regimens were more likely to have donor myeloid chimerism <50% early after HCT. In addition, higher platelet counts were observed among recipients who achieved full (>95%) vs low-level (5%-49%) donor myeloid engraftment. In summary, HCT outcomes for WAS have improved since 2005, compared with prior reports. HCT at a younger age continues to be associated with superior outcomes supporting the recommendation for early HCT. High-level donor myeloid engraftment is important for platelet reconstitution after either myeloablative or busulfan-containing reduced intensity conditioning. (This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT02064933.).

Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Patients With Primary Immune Regulatory Disorders (PIRD): A Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium (PIDTC) Survey.

Primary Immune Regulatory Disorders (PIRD) are an expanding group of diseases caused by gene defects in several different immune pathways, such as regulatory T cell function. Patients with PIRD develop clinical manifestations associated with diminished and exaggerated immune responses. Management of these patients is complicated; oftentimes immunosuppressive therapies are insufficient, and patients may require hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) for treatment. Analysis of HCT data in PIRD patients have previously focused on a single gene defect. This study surveyed transplanted patients with a phenotypic clinical picture consistent with PIRD treated in 33 Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium centers and European centers. Our data showed that PIRD patients often had immunodeficient and autoimmune features affecting multiple organ systems. Transplantation resulted in resolution of disease manifestations in more than half of the patients with an overall 5-years survival of 67%. This study, the first to encompass disorders across the PIRD spectrum, highlights the need for further research in PIRD management.

Scope and Burden of Non-Standard of Care Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Pediatric Leukodystrophy Patients.

Inherited leukodystrophies are a group of diseases affecting central nervous system myelin that lead to death or significant health problems. Although for most leukodystrophies there are no curative treatments, for a handful of diseases hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT; bone marrow transplant) can stop disease progression, and if initiated in a timely fashion, prevent many or all neurologic and other systems involvement. However, HSCT is a complex procedure with significant morbidity and mortality risks. The study goal was to determine whether HSCT was being more widely used outside of those leukodystrophies for which HSCT is typically employed. The authors conducted a 2-year retrospective review of HSCT performed across the United States in 51 children's hospitals that are part of the Pediatric Health Information System. The authors screened for 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) codes for leukodystrophies in which HSCT is "nonstandard," including sphingolipidoses, Fabry disease, Gaucher disease, and Niemann-Pick disease, and excluded patients who had ICD-10 codes for leukodystrophies that are HSCT candidates, specifically X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy, metachromatic leukodystrophy, Krabbe disease, and Hurler disease. The authors identified 91 patients (from a total cohort of 937) with one of the nonstandard leukodystrophies who had HSCT. HSCT was performed at 20 of the hospitals, with the majority performed at only 6 hospitals. Average costs ($786 846) per patient were more than 6 times higher than patients who did not have HSCT. The data show that an unexpectedly large number of leukodystrophy patients are receiving transplants for conditions in which HSCT is not typically used, and which are associated with high medical costs.

SCID genotype and 6-month posttransplant CD4 count predict survival and immune recovery.

The Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium (PIDTC) performed a retrospective analysis of 662 patients with severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) who received a hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) as first-line treatment between 1982 and 2012 in 33 North American institutions. Overall survival was higher after HCT from matched-sibling donors (MSDs). Among recipients of non-MSD HCT, multivariate analysis showed that the SCID genotype strongly influenced survival and immune reconstitution. Overall survival was similar for patients with RAG, IL2RG, or JAK3 defects and was significantly better compared with patients with ADA or DCLRE1C mutations. Patients with RAG or DCLRE1C mutations had poorer immune reconstitution than other genotypes. Although survival did not correlate with the type of conditioning regimen, recipients of reduced-intensity or myeloablative conditioning had a lower incidence of treatment failure and better T- and B-cell reconstitution, but a higher risk for graft-versus-host disease, compared with those receiving no conditioning or immunosuppression only. Infection-free status and younger age at HCT were associated with improved survival. Typical SCID, leaky SCID, and Omenn syndrome had similar outcomes. Landmark analysis identified CD4+ and CD4+CD45RA+ cell counts at 6 and 12 months post-HCT as biomarkers predictive of overall survival and long-term T-cell reconstitution. Our data emphasize the need for patient-tailored treatment strategies depending upon the underlying SCID genotype. The prognostic significance of CD4+ cell counts as early as 6 months after HCT emphasizes the importance of close follow-up of immune reconstitution to identify patients who may need additional intervention to prevent poor long-term outcome.

Unusual aryl-porphyrin rotational barriers in peripherally crowded porphyrins.

Previous studies of 5,10,15,20-tetraarylporphyrins have shown that the barrier for meso aryl-porphyrin rotation (DeltaG++(ROT)) varies as a function of the core substituent M and is lower for a small metal (M = Ni) compared to a large metal (M = Zn) and for a dication (M = 4H(2+)) versus a free base porphyrin (M = 2H). This has been attributed to changes in the nonplanar distortion of the porphyrin ring and the deformability of the macrocycle caused by the core substituent. In the present work, X-ray crystallography, molecular mechanics (MM) calculations, and variable temperature (VT) (1)H NMR spectroscopy are used to examine the relationship between the aryl-porphyrin rotational barrier and the core substituent M in some novel 2,3,5,7,8,10,12,13,15,17,18,20-dodecaarylporphyrins (DArPs), and specifically in some 5,10,15,20-tetraaryl-2,3,7,8,12,13,17,18-octaphenylporphyrins (TArOPPs), where steric crowding of the peripheral groups always results in a very nonplanar macrocycle. X-ray structures of DArPs indicate differences in the nonplanar conformation of the macrocycle as a function of M, with saddle conformations being observed for M = Zn, 2H or M = 4H(2+) and saddle and/or ruffle conformations for M = Ni. VT NMR studies show that the effect of protonation in the TArOPPs is to increase DeltaG++(ROT), which is the opposite of the effect seen for the TArPs, and MM calculations also predict a strikingly high barrier for the TArOPPs when M = 4H(2+). These and other findings suggest that the aryl-porphyrin rotational barriers in the DArPs are closely linked to the deformability of the macrocycle along a nonplanar distortion mode which moves the substituent being rotated out of the porphyrin plane.

Influence of electronic and structural effects on the oxidative behavior of nickel porphyrins.

With the aim of better understanding the electronic and structural factors which govern electron-transfer processes in porphyrins, the electrochemistry of 29 nickel(II) porphyrins has been examined in dichloromethane containing either 0.1 M tetra-n-butylammonium perchlorate (TBAP) or tetra-n-butylammonium hexafluorophosphate (TBAPF(6)) as supporting electrolyte. Half-wave potentials for the first oxidation and first reduction are only weakly dependent on the supporting electrolyte, but E(1/2) for the second oxidation varies considerably with the type of supporting electrolyte. E(1/2) values for the first reduction to give a porphyrin pi-anion radical are effected in large part by the electronic properties of the porphyrin macrocycle substituents, while half-wave potentials for the first oxidation to give a pi-cation radical are affected by the substituents as well as by nonplanar deformations of the porphyrin macrocycle. The potential difference between the first and second oxidations (Delta/Ox(2) - Ox(1)/) is highly variable among the 29 investigated compounds and ranges from 0 mV (two overlapped oxidations) to 460 mV depending on the macrocycle substituents and the anion of the supporting electrolyte. The magnitude of Delta/Ox(2) - Ox(1)/ is generally smaller for compounds with very electron-withdrawing substituents and when TBAP is used as the supporting electrolyte. This behavior is best explained in terms of differences in the binding strengths of anions from the supporting electrolyte (ClO(4)(-) or PF(6)(-)) to the doubly oxidized species. A closer analysis suggests two factors which are important in modulating Delta/Ox(2) - Ox(1)/ and thus the binding affinity of the anion to the porphyrin dication. One is the type of pi-cation radical (a proxy for the charge distribution in the dication), and the other is the conformation of the porphyrin macrocycle (either planar or nonplanar). These findings imply that the redox behavior of porphyrins can be selectively tuned to display separate or overlapped oxidation processes.